By La-Min Lin

Abstract: Democratic diffusion, the spread of democracy among states, is well-documented while autocratic diffusion remains less explored. Existing research on democratic diffusion through trade assumes a trend of continued democratization of states in the global trade system. However, contrary to expectations of democratic diffusion theory, autocratization is happening at record levels. I argue that the structures of trade networks that states participate in can create conditions conducive to the diffusion of autocracy, offering a network-based explanation to the rise in the number of autocracies. I examine trade relations between 1962 and 2017 to propose a novel dataset of global trade networks constructed through the Leiden algorithm that captures the interactions between states and their regimes. This proposed dataset would not only advance our understanding of autocratic diffusion, but also contribute to the growing trend in research of a shift away from dyadic frameworks towards multilateral analyses. By analyzing these networks, I demonstrate that trade relationships among states with autocracies can foster the spread of autocracy, undermining the predictions of democratic diffusion theories. My capstone highlights the need to reconsider the mechanisms by which political regimes influence one another and offers a new approach to understanding the global dynamics of regime diffusion.