Playing For Keeps: Power-Sharing in Civil Conflict Settlement and Durable Peace

By Sage Ware

Abstract: In the complex process of civil conflict settlement, power sharing is often employed to mitigate tensions between opposing groups and balance the power. However, given the number of recurring civil conflicts in various regions, one must wonder just how effective power-sharing is in achieving durable peace. This paper explores the conditions under which power-sharing has the most success. Here, I theorize that local power-sharing, when implemented alongside or as part of national power-sharing, increases the durability of peace. Local power-sharing reinforces the same commitment mechanisms and incentives that are crucial to the success of power-sharing arrangements at the national level. This study proposes a cross-national analysis of local power-sharing, using a Cox proportional hazards model, including 34 observations from 1990 to 2015. Should the research be supported, a greater subnational emphasis in negotiated settlements may lower the likelihood of conflict recurrence. Moreover, societies with high ethnic diversity and historically clientelistic governance systems may benefit the most from local power-sharing.