Trap or Opportunity: The Impact of Belt and Road Initiative Loans on Recipient Countries’ Development

By Ellis Shen

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of loans associated with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the growth and development of recipient countries. While the BRI holds potential for enhancing economic development in underdeveloped regions, concerns have been raised regarding the effects of BRI loans on overall recipient country development. Existing studies on the economic impacts of these loans are limited, and findings have been mixed. To analyze the effects of BRI-related loans on economic growth and human development, this study employs a novel framework and research design. It hypothesizes that recipient countries with higher amounts of BRI-related loans will exhibit higher levels of corruption and lower levels of foreign investment. The findings of this study provide new insights into the Belt and Road Initiative, shedding light on its effectiveness and underlying motivations. By assessing the economic impacts of BRI loans, this study contributes to the ongoing debate on the potential benefits and drawbacks of the initiative. Ultimately, the paper aims to inform policymakers and scholars about China’s role in global economic governance and the implications of its foreign policies for the development of recipient countries.