By Olivia Haring and Casey Lopes

Abstract: Existing research, particularly Lujala (2010), has established that the presence and production of hydrocarbons in a conflict zone influence both conflict duration and onset. This literature, however, fails to consider how international oil prices may condition this relationship, despite many of the causal mechanisms relying on hydrocarbons as a source of funding for rebel groups. We argue that when oil prices are high, the conflict-lengthening effect of hydrocarbons will be greater and hydrocarbon production will make conflict onset even more likely. We find in our extension of Lujala (2010), however, that hydrocarbons increase conflict duration less when oil prices are high and that oil prices have no significant effect on the relationship between hydrocarbons and conflict onset. These results greatly improve our understanding of the relationship between natural resources and conflict and present numerous avenues for future research.