By Olivia Haring

Abstract: When do local ceasefires lead to the onset and success of conflict-wide ceasefires? Drawing on the literature on ceasefires, mediation, and bargaining, I explore the understudied influence of local ceasefire agreements on broader processes of peace and conflict resolution. I argue that internal mediation provides unique advantages in local ceasefire negotiations that allow it to more effectively reveal information and contribute to confidence building, thus leading to the onset and success of a subsequent conflict-wide ceasefire. External mediation, however, undermines the ability of a local ceasefire to resolve commitment problems and contribute to gradual confidence building. International pressure combines with the limited scope and lower compliance costs of local ceasefires to create false incentives to comply with the ceasefire. This harms the ceasefires’ ability to contribute to the resolution of bargaining problems and makes external mediation less likely to lead to the onset and success of a conflict-wide ceasefire. I test my argument using an extension of the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) Dataset, which covers all ceasefires conducted globally from 1989 to 2020. This article presents important implications for the potential negative impact of external mediation beyond simply ceasefire failure.